David Huang

I watched a presentation by Dr. Wes Youngberg yesterday giving his recommendations regarding this virus.  Here's a link to it if you are interested.  My main takeaways are his recommendations of supplemental vitamin C and D to help strengthen our immune systems, as well as making sure to get lots of sleep which is needed to help the body heal.  This is in addition to eating a quality diet of nutrient dense foods.

Mike Haasl wrote:So what does the "Total Recovered" number in the chart mean?  Is that the number that survived and are over it?  So (per Greg's screenshot), 11,000 people currently have it, 259 died from it and 252 survived it?

Or is it that of 11,000 cases, some portion of which were hospitalized for it (presumably elderly or immune-compromised) and of that subset, half lived and half died?

Sorry if this was covered earlier in the thread...

The total recovered number would be people who had been confirmed to have it (and thus part of the 11,000) and have gotten over the disease.  Presumably they would have been among the earlier ones to get it as most of those represented in the 11,000 figure are still dealing with the disease.  At this point it is hard to really determine just how deadly it is.  My suspicion, perhaps really just my hope, is that most people who have died from it get counted, but that a huge number beyond those in the 11,000 figure have been infected but not counted because they never had confirmation testing, or had such a mild case they never needed to seek medical help, or China has just been suppressing the real numbers.  If this was the case then the lethality of the virus would look amplified in the numbers.  In the video I posted to above the latest study suggested around 6% who contract it die, but that's a really really fuzzy number right now.

Sharol Tilgner wrote:Update On Corona Virus 2019-nCoV From WHO - World Health Organization

As of 1/31/2020 the World Health Organization has listed 7736 confirmed cases in China and  a world-wide total of 7818 cases in 19 countries. It is suspected that there are actually 12,167 cases of the novel corona virus at this time. Of the known cases, 1,370 of these cases are considered severe and there are 170 deaths. The number of deaths are less than those first thought to be taking place. It currently appears to be at around 2%.

To give you some perspective, in the 2018-2019 flu season the United States Center for Disease Control estimates 35.5 million people were sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza. As with the current Corona virus, those who are older are the ones most likely to succumb to the flu and die. 75% of the influenza deaths were in those 65 and older.

Thanks for those numbers and comparisons Sharol.  Chris Martenson, over at PeakProsperity.com who has been tracking this closely just released an update as well based on the best available data he has been able to find from Chinese researchers.  I'd highly recommend everyone watch this video about it all:  https://www.peakprosperity.com/new-coronavirus-ro-of-4-1-massive-contagion-risk/

Since I know most people won't watch the video, let me try to give the briefest of cliff notes.  An important measure of a disease such as this is how easily it is transferred from one person to another, generally referred to as the R0 factor.  For the regular seasonal flu that Sharol gave us estimates for the R0 is 1.28.  This means that on average every person who gets it will infect 1.28 people.  The R0 for this new coronavirus was being estimated at the low end at 2.5, meaning each person who gets it is likely to infect another 2.5 people.  The latest data Dr. Martenson is presenting in this video is putting the R0 at 4.1!  I realize those numbers don't sound scary.  That's because we as humans just don't tend to be able to grasp exponential functions.  He translates this out into potential real population numbers just a bit after the 8 minute mark in the video.  With the regular flu having an R0 of 1.28, which again it is estimated resulted in 490,600 hospitalizations and 34,200 deaths in the US last flu season, at the 10th cycle will be infecting 9 new people.  At the 20th cycle that would be up to 109 new infections per cycle.

With the low end estimation of an R0 of 2.5 on this coronavirus at the 10th cycle the math says 3815 new people will be infected.  Extended that to the 20th cycle it would be 36,379,788!  With the latest R0 calculation of 4 the 10th cycle infects 262,144 new people, and at the 20th cycle that goes up to a number exceeding the total human population of the planet by a stupid amount.

This new study also apparently determined that if the time people are traveling around interacting with others and potentially spreading the disease can be reduced to 2-3 days then this can be contained and burn itself out.  This is of course hard to do if infected people really can spread it prior to seeing any symptoms in themselves.  This info also helps explain why China has gone to such drastic measures closing down whole cities.

Odds seem to be pretty good if these R0 calculations are anywhere close to accurate that this won't be contained and you will get it.  Hence the original point of this thread is all the more important.  How can you best treat this disease on your own at home?  I would agree that one of the best things we can be doing right now is to get as healthy as we can, boosting our immune system so hopefully we can be one of those who is able to shrug this off like a minor illness, or perhaps not even detect symptoms because our bodies were able to fight it off so well.  For myself it's motivating me even more to focus on eating a whole food plant based diet.  Your individual dietary beliefs/needs may vary but I'd suggest putting in some extra effort to care for your body as best as you can, however you feel that is best done, for the next few months at least.  If this all blows over and amounts to nothing then the worst outcome is a healthier you!  :)  

I offer up a third recommendation for checking out the info from Chris Martenson at Peak Prosperity.  I've been following his work for many years.  I recall that during a past virus outbreak when the media was blowing it up to be a big thing he looked at the data and said, "Not likely" and proceeded to explain why.  This time he is saying it could very well be a big thing and he then explains why.  This link will get you to the page that has the full coverage of all the reports he's done to follow this:  https://www.peakprosperity.com/tag/coronavirus/

As far as herbal remedies to potentially help, my girlfriend just sent me a link to this article on Green Med Info:  https://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/can-herbal-medicines-fight-wuhan-coronavirus  In it he does list some things that have been shown to help with similar viruses.

What I can offer here doesn't necessarily lead to lower cost shipping.  I'm an artist often shipping high dollar value packages.  My experience is in shipping so it arrives undamaged and how to find lower insurance rates.  For me the insurance is often the most expensive part of shipping.

First, I was taught that one should expect your package to be dropped from 6 feet up, not just 4 feet!  Depending on what you are shipping you may not want it packed too tightly.  You do want things packed so they don't slide or move around certainly.  However if something is very tightly packed then the energy of an impact will get directed into what you are shipping.  You want your packing material to be able to absorb the force of impact rather than conduct it through.  I tend to use bubble wrap or crumpled paper.  If I get styrofoam I will generally reuse it for packing, but I don't like to seek it out.

In the art world, at least for those shipping sculpture, another important standard is to double box the work.  You pack the product in the inner box with appropriate packing material and adequate spacing from the side of the box.  Make sure there is an address on the outside of the inner box in case it gets loose from a damaged outer box.  Then you pack this box inside another with at least 1 inch of packing material all around.  This is creating a strong security buffer zone to absorb impacts.  There is a company I use for insurance on high dollar value boxes that strictly require this sort of packing or the insurance claim will be void.  The also require that you not indicate in any way that there is anything valuable in the box, including recipient addresses.  For example if I was shipping to Joe's Art Gallery I would write the address as Joe's, Joe's AG, or perhaps J.A.G.  I suspect there aren't many here shipping packages valued at over $1000.  If you are it might be worth looking at opening an account with Parcel Pro for insurance needs.  They focus on the jewelry industry who often ship very high dollar value packages.  

For most people doing insurance values under $1000 you might want to look at InsurePost.  I know they are good for the US.  I think they do Canada too, but I'm not sure.  Generally with this sort of service you can ship via your normal carriers but insure through them for lower rates.

Now if you are shipping bars of steel, as I have done often enough with tools, one should realize that any movement within the box will let them function like a battering ram with every stop and start of the truck, plane, etc.  I used to work for a company that made hand tools for the sewage and septic industry.  There was a lot of shipping loss due to this, until he found a packaging type that could withstand that.  I won't get into that solution here since it's not really available easily to the average person.  What I've found worked for me was to just take scrap cardboard and completely wrap all the tools into one tight bundle.  Then I would pack it into the shipping box really tight so it had no chance of sliding around inside.  This is where I think packing really tight is a good idea.  I also found USPS flat rate shipping and excellent value for this sort of package!!!  I would use generous amounts of tape on that package too!

Joel Bercardin wrote:

Thanks for the pie, David.

I was actually the apple, but maybe you can make an apple pie from it.  :)  Thanks again for your quality post!

Thanks for sharing this.  There are some good ideas in here.  As you note some of them are pretty weak too.  In general his stuff for wood working with the angle grinder is probably better done with another tool.  I do like the drill bit sharpener and various "table grinding" setups.  I may have to try making some versions of these for some tool making I'll be doing before too long that I use my angle grinder for.

T.J. Stewart wrote:Our traps arrived today (gotta love Prime, even if you hate the machine lol).

My soon to be 16 year old son unboxed the traps. There were 6 of them.  They didn't look especially strong or effective, but they were here and we were going to try them out.  But first, my son had to do the "finger test".  Yes, that means that he wanted to see what it would feel like if the trap snapped his finger.  We all looked on in anticipation...well, actually, first I told him that I didn't think he should try it because it might really hurt, but his hands are pretty big (he's a farm boy after all) and he wanted to try it, so in the end, I said "go for it." lol

SNAP.  It looked like it didn't hurt AT ALL and my son confirmed through his laughter that it didn't.  Okay.  Hummmm.  Oh well, I thought, maybe they'll still work.  We didn't have anything to lose by trying them since we had already bought them.  I told the boys to set some and put them in place.  They must have decided on using peanut butter because as I left the room, I saw them spooning it out.  

Fast forward a couple hours later when everyone had retired to their rooms.  SNAP.... screechhhh screechhhhhh (ah ha!  We got one!)    10 minutes later:  SNAP....... screechhhhh   1 hour later:  SNAP....... Screechhhh  

I really can not believe it, but these things really work!  Thanks for the recommendation, David! :)  

BTW, another thing that we like about them is that they are reusable and super simple to set.  

So glad you got and like them!  Thanks for the report back too.  When I first got one I too thought these don't seem very strong, and I suppose compared to traditional types the spring really isn't as strong.  However, I've found they really work!  The added bonus of them not being as strong is that they are safer for kids and pets as your son found out.  :)  

T.J. Stewart wrote:I'm not the OP, but David, upon your endorsement, I'm ordering The Better Mousetrap(s) from your affiliate link.  (Michael, I looked at the link that you provided, but I'm in The States, so I can't try that one).  I'll try to remember to come back here and report how it goes for us. :)

I hope they work as well for you as they have for me over the years.  I've caught dozens and dozens and dozens with these.  They are so much easier to set too than the traditional type mousetrap.  The traditional type can work well if you get them set just right with a hair trigger so to speak.

One of the best easy set mouse traps I use is the Intruder brand  "The Better Mousetrap" (this is an affiliate link where I'd earn a small commission for qualifying sales)  
I have another easy set trap that I bought at one of those big box home improvement stores over a decade ago.  It is always set and has never once in all these years caught or even been triggered by a mouse.  Something about it causes my mice to avoid it like the plague.  For the past several years I've had it set literally side by side with one of The Better Mousetrap type and I will still only catch the mice in the Better brand one.  I will say the Better Mousetrap ones don't always catch them when triggered, but I have a pretty high catch rate.  After enough years the spring involved can start to get a bit weaker too it seems.  I just bought a new 6 pack of them and reading the literature included they noted you can reposition the spring so it's springing on a fresh spot.  I need to try that.

The one thing I haven't seen anyone directly mention here yet is the importance of mousetrap placement.  I rarely even bait my traps anymore as I'm not looking to attract them.  I just place them along places I know the mice will travel.  Mice don't like going out into open areas.  This isn't to say they won't ever do this, but their strong preference is to run along walls, behind furniture, etc.  They want more protected places they can remain more hidden in.  Right now I  have most of my mouse entry points found and closed up with steel wool (I've been told they can't/won't chew through that), however there is a spot they come in either behind or under my furnace where I can't access without pulling the appliance out.  The way things are set up this leaves two channels to either side of the furnace that they will travel out to try and become free range mice in the house.  I have my traps placed there with the trap pinching side facing and placed right up to the wall.  The mice just run right into it over and over, snap and trap!  When I do get free range house mice I again will access the layout and try to think like a mouse seeking cover and protection.  Then I will place my traps in those pathways and I catch them quickly 90% of the time.