I think the odds of a new dust bowl are higher than I would like, quite a bit due to water use. I have flown and driven from NM to MO, and CO to MO many times, and what you see is miles of circular aquifer run sprinkler systems. All it takes to stop those is is a power outage, or the water running out, both very likely.
A random google maps link
somewhere in Kansas shows a bunch of dark green, irrigated off the aquifer, circles. That's standard, to tap the aquifer, because the rainfall will not grow the crops they plant.
The Ogallala aquifer is being drawn down at an alarming rate, and it looks a lot like where they circle irrigate.
In my eyes, there are too many factors that can stop that irrigating, then all that soil starts blowing, as it can't grow what was planted, and effort has been made to eradicate anything else growing there. The topsoil losses in this country are already horrifying, and adding more to it is a long term problem.
I'd love to think that more people are leaving stubble in the ground, but when the ground between the rows is bare, the roots are only holding so much. And I know if I drive in this area, the fields are now (early Dec) sitting there with naked soil showing.
The tornado pattern is shifting, due, in part, to drier conditions in the plains. ‘Tornado Alley’ may be moving east
I personally think that hedgerow removal and monocropping expanding heavily in that area is quite a bit to blame, as there are fewer obstructions to break up the wind pattern. As the older farmers die off, the big companies are buying the land, clearing and leveling it, and expanding their reach. It would take very little to make that area start blowing too.
I would LOVE to think that things are not ripe for it again, but I know how fast it accelerates once the process starts.
I'd love to see more permaculture running, to break this whole pattern up. Plant what can grow with ambient water, add back hedgerows, trees, use smaller fields and solid crop rotation that keeps the soil deeply covered.